5/12/21 9:30 pm NY time
After a long a day of news usd/cad is finally looking to make a move. As recent news of the increase in us interest rates push the market side ways looking to push retail traders out. We may see a bearish move on this pairing soon. The futures markets seem to also be setting up for a reversal from the last couple days of bullish momentum. Lets check out the technicals.
US DOLLAR INDEX(DX1!)
We can see the dollar testing the 20 moving average in the daily time chart and currently pushing south.
We could see a continued bearish trend to likely 90.040 which will likely push us based pairings south with it. Its still early in the game so the best thing is to look at smaller time frames to get a better understanding of what the markets lookin to do. Lets check out the 4 hour and 2 hour time frames before we move on to the CAD.
We can see the 4 hour coming from the 100 and 50 moving averages we could possibly see volatility slow around the 20 moving average which could cause us based pairings to push up as bullish momentum may pick up in the market. You can’t predict the market all you can do is use past knowledge to help you make the correct decision. Price seems to be following trend along with the moving averages here.
A new 2 hour candle opens bullish we could see a retest of the 100 moving average or this could turn into a bear candle to early to tell. A bit a bullish momentum could open up entries if us based pairings fall. We could possibly find confirmation in this time chart we may see some big moves in the forex markets if the US INDEX continues to fall.
The only time frame we really need to look at here is the hour. Where as Cad future arent bullish at the moment the could become bullish, But im thinking the bearing momentum may not have started here yet. CAD1! opened higher and managed to hold over 4333.1 either way the cad wants to go it’ll likely push the usd/cad pairing down. If it were to gain strength over the us dollar the pairing will likely fall and if it continues to get beat down we’ll likely see the usd/cad pairing dropping.
As we can see the CADs been having trouble gaining momentum as they’re doing about as well as the us is doing which is kind of poorly but people are getting vaccinated. Lets see how this one goes the rest of the week as this could influence pairings that have the Canadian dollar in them.
Seems to be respecting the 1.21361 price level as we see the pairing slowly lose bullish momentum. In the daily it seemed like the pairing could have retested the 20 moving average but looking at the futures market I’m thinking the usd/cad pairing isn’t going to make it that high. Lets take a look at the daily chart.
So what where looking for is price to fall below 1.21049, Im thinking if we beat this price level we’ll see a move down toward the monthly support as the pairing recently broke weekly support last week and seems to want to finish trend before we see real bullish momentum. The markets are currently calm we are likely to see this pairing wake up around 3 or 4 am and could catch some volatility at the us stock market open, which is 9:30 am eastern pacific time. Lets take a bit of a closer look take it down to a 4 hour time charts.
In the 4 hour time chart we can see price face a bit of confusion but that’s why its good to wait for confirmation but if we see price close below the 20 moving average in the 4 hour time chart we could see bearish momentum pick up on the pairing. Higher time charts are usually a bit better to try to read the market on, mainly because when price levels break or when MA break or price retest it tends to stand true on higher time frames more often then none. Now you could still get faked out but you’re more likely to get faked out in lower time frames more often then none.
I’m not a professional investor invest/trade at your own risk.